Why good estimators are harder to find than the numbers suggest

Material costs have been anything but stable. AGC’s analysis of producer price data shows nonresidential construction inputs up 8.9% between August 2025 and August 2026. Steel mill products rose 23.4%, aluminum mill shapes 27.3%, copper and brass 20.9%, and diesel 77.8%. Steel, aluminum and copper now carry 50% tariffs, with 25% on many derivative products.

In a separate AGC survey, 55% of contractors said they’d had projects canceled, postponed or scaled back in the last six months, and 33% pointed to rising costs.

In that market, an estimator who just takes off quantities and applies last year’s unit costs is a liability. Contractors want people who can price escalation, write sensible qualifications, get real numbers from trade partners and have a view on buyout risk before the bid goes in.

ENR’s Top 100 project delivery firms saw construction manager at risk revenue rise 22.5% to $251 billion. CM at risk, design-assist and negotiated work all move the estimator’s job earlier in the process. The job becomes budgeting against a design that’s still changing, running target value conversations with an owner, and keeping a project affordable through design development.

That’s a different skill set from hard bid estimating. It needs someone who can stand in front of a client and explain a number, not just produce one. Those people are the ones most contractors are chasing, and they’re the ones most likely to be moved into preconstruction manager roles as soon as they show it.

The forward indicators are mixed. The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index was 47.2 in August, still below 50, so billings are still falling. The Dodge Momentum Index is up 4.2% year over year, but Dodge says commercial planning would be down 18.9% without data centers.

For estimating teams, that means more bids chasing fewer projects outside data centers and a handful of other sectors. That makes the quality of every number more important, not less.

The BLS median for cost estimators working for building contractors is $84,610, and $99,910 in heavy and civil construction. State medians across all industries run from $70,260 in South Carolina to $80,530 in Virginia. As with superintendents, treat those as a floor. A senior estimator who can lead a negotiated pursuit on $50 million-plus commercial work in the Carolinas or Virginia is paid well above them, and a proven preconstruction manager more again.

Be clear about which estimator you need. Hard bid, negotiated or a mix? One trade or whole building? Someone to support a precon lead, or someone to become one? A vague brief gets you a vague shortlist.

Think about where they come from. Estimators who started in the field or on a subcontractor’s estimating desk often bring a feel for cost that’s hard to teach.

Show them a path. Estimators who are good at client-facing work want to know whether a preconstruction manager or director role is realistic at your company. If it is, say so early.